{"data":{"sci_version": "1.2", "schema": "https://corpus.bntrg.co.uk/sci/1.0/sci.schema.json", "id": "pmid:33441161", "kind": "science-record", "revision": 5, "content_hash": "sha256:7a10fcb2f56f71ef413c211fc3f87165368e27b4e881a1501b8152c0e9fbf6d5", "created_at": "2026-11-01T15:41:22Z", "updated_at": "2026-11-01T21:24:30Z", "generator": {"name": "corpus-assay-engine", "run_id": "reading-sci-2026-11-01"}, "paper": {"state": "complete", "title": "Identification of a prognostic gene signature of colon cancer using integrated bioinformatics analysis.", "doi": "10.1186/s12957-020-02116-y", "pmid": "33441161", "authors": ["Zhengyu Fang", "Sumei Xu", "Yiwen Xie", "Wenxi Yan"], "journal": "World journal of surgical oncology", "year": 2021, "abstract": "BACKGROUND: Colon cancer is a worldwide leading cause of cancer-related mortality, and the prognosis of colon cancer is still needed to be improved. This study aimed to construct a prognostic model for predicting the prognosis of colon cancer.\nMETHODS: The gene expression profile data of colon cancer were obtained from the TCGA, GSE44861, and GSE44076 datasets. The WGCNA module genes and common differentially expressed genes (DEGs) were used to screen out the prognosis-associated DEGs, which were used to construct a prognostic model. The performance of the prognostic model was assessed and validated in the TCGA training and microarray validation sets (GSE38832 and GSE17538). At last, the model and prognosis-associated clinical factors were used for the construction of the nomogram.\nRESULTS: Five colon cancer-related WGCNA modules (including 1160 genes) and 1153 DEGs between tumor and normal tissues were identified, inclusive of 556 overlapping DEGs. Stepwise Cox regression analyses identified there were 14 prognosis-associated DEGs, of which 12 DEGs were included in the optimized prognostic gene signature. This prognostic model presented a high forecast ability for the prognosis of colon cancer both in the TCGA training dataset and the validation datasets (GSE38832 and GSE17538; AUC > 0.8). In addition, patients' age, T classification, recurrence status, and prognostic risk score were associated with the prognosis of TCGA patients with colon cancer. The nomogram was constructed using the above factors, and the predictive 3- and 5-year survival probabilities had high compliance with the actual survival proportions.\nCONCLUSIONS: The 12-gene signature prognostic model had a high predictive ability for the prognosis of colon cancer.", "claims": [{"id": "claim-method", "statement": "The common DEGs across the TCGA, GSE44861, and GSE44076 datasets were identified using the MetaDE.ES methods in the R MetaDE package", "kind": "methodological", "target": null, "evidence": [{"asset": "source:pmid:33441161", "locator": "sections[5] \"DEG identification by meta-analysis\" paragraph 2", "quote": "The common DEGs across the TCGA, GSE44861, and GSE44076 datasets were identified using the MetaDE.ES methods in the R MetaDE package"}], "state": "complete"}, {"id": "claim-data-access", "statement": "Besides, the RNA-seq data of colon cancer and the corresponding clinical information were downloaded from TCGA (https://gdc-portal.nci.nih.gov/). After sample selection, 473 samples including 432 tumor samples with clinical information and 41 normal samples were retained in this study.", "kind": "methodological", "target": null, "evidence": [{"asset": "source:pmid:33441161", "locator": "sections[3] \"Data extraction\" paragraph 3", "quote": "Besides, the RNA-seq data of colon cancer and the corresponding clinical information were downloaded from TCGA (https://gdc-portal.nci.nih.gov/). After sample selection, 473 samples including 432 tumor samples with clinical information and 41 normal samples were retained in this study."}], "state": "complete"}], "gaps": []}, "experiment": {"state": "complete", "objective": null, "steps": [{"id": "read_published_estimate", "order": 1, "name": "Read the published estimate from the source", "kind": "other", "state": "complete", "blocked_on": null, "description": "The claim, method and evidence span published with the source article.", "duration_hours": null, "parameters": {}, "inputs": ["source:pmid:33441161"], "outputs": ["the published estimate and its evidence"], "instruments": [], "reagents": []}, {"id": "obtain_source_data", "order": 2, "name": "Obtain the source data from the named repository", "kind": "data-preparation", "state": "complete", "blocked_on": null, "description": "The GEO series accession resolves and its sample accessions are listed. This lane did not download the dataset or read its licence.", "duration_hours": null, "parameters": {}, "inputs": ["data:geo:GSE17538"], "outputs": ["the source data with its repository provenance"], "instruments": [], "reagents": []}, {"id": "run_analysis", "order": 3, "name": "Run the published analysis", "kind": "analysis", "state": "complete", "blocked_on": null, "description": "Apply the paper's statistical method to the resolved series and compare the result with the published target.", "duration_hours": null, "parameters": {}, "inputs": ["data:geo:GSE17538"], "outputs": ["the replicated result and its comparison"], "instruments": [], "reagents": []}], "materials": [], "instruments": [], "reagents": [], "conditions": {}, "gaps": []}, "data": {"state": "partial", "assets": [{"id": "source:pmid:33441161", "role": "manuscript", "format": "xml", "media_type": "application/xml", "uri": "https://doi.org/10.1186/s12957-020-02116-y", "sha256": "sha256:2427fd9f4c124abf2adc109578004dcf69518f36d845296b840a18a4f6f93d45", "bytes": 37272, "access": "open", "state": "resolved", "reader": null, "reader_status": "reader_required", "identifier": "10.1186/s12957-020-02116-y", "version": null, "note": "Full article fetched from PMC; the checksum covers the rendered section body, not the original XML bytes.", "structure": {"pmcid": "PMC7807455", "source": "europe_pmc_fulltext", "coverage": "whole_body_without_references", "text_hash_scope": "rendered_section_body"}}, {"id": "data:geo:GSE17538", "role": "raw", "format": "geo-series", "media_type": "application/vnd.ncbi.geo-series+json", "uri": "https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/geo/query/acc.cgi?acc=GSE17538", "sha256": null, "bytes": null, "access": "open", "state": "resolved", "reader": null, "reader_status": "reader_required", "identifier": "GSE17538", "version": null, "note": "Besides, the RNA-seq data of colon cancer and the corresponding clinical information were downloaded from TCGA (https://gdc-portal.nci.nih.gov/). After sample selection, 473 samples including 432 tumor samples with clinical information and 41 normal samples were retained in this study.", "structure": {"repository": "GEO", "access_route": "GEO accession URL", "access_statement_verbatim": "Besides, the RNA-seq data of colon cancer and the corresponding clinical information were downloaded from TCGA (https://gdc-portal.nci.nih.gov/). 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"2026-11-01T15:39:54Z", "resolution_check": "identifier_resolution_only_no_download_no_licence_read", "downloaded": false, "licence_read": false}}, {"id": "asset:table:pmid:33441161:1", "role": "table", "format": "jats-table", "media_type": "application/vnd.jats.table+json", "uri": null, "sha256": "sha256:09d764bed362ecd8390b40903a897724a0d4557f11fdabd7952246cc5e7d51ab", "bytes": 707, "access": "open", "state": "verified", "reader": "read_table", "reader_status": "available", "identifier": "section[12]/table-wrap[1]#Tab1", "version": null, "note": "The weighted gene co-expression network analysis (WGCNA) gene modules related to colon cancer", "structure": {"pmcid": "PMC7807455", "section_index": 12, "section_title": "Extraction of WGCNA modules related to colon cancer", "row_count": 10, "column_count": 5}, "table": {"label": "Table 1", "caption": "The weighted gene co-expression network analysis (WGCNA) gene modules related to colon cancer", "rows": [["ID", "Color", "Module size", "Preservation"], ["Z-score", "P value"], ["Module 1", "Black", "133", "1.9913", "1.40E−01"], ["Module 2", "Blue", "381", "8.7017", "4.50E−06"], ["Module 3", "Brown", "205", "10.4907", "4.00E−03"], ["Module 4", "Green", "195", "8.2073", "5.10E−03"], ["Module 5", "Grey", "2469", "0.3400", "2.30E−05"], ["Module 6", "Red", "184", "10.9777", "1.00E− 03"], ["Module 7", "Turquoise", "649", "4.0049", "1.30E−02"], ["Module 8", "Yellow", "195", "5.6788", "2.00E−05"]], "row_count": 10, "column_count": 5, "numeric_cells": 32, "header_rows": 2, "locator": "section[12]/table-wrap[1]#Tab1"}}, {"id": "asset:table:pmid:33441161:2", "role": "table", "format": "jats-table", "media_type": "application/vnd.jats.table+json", "uri": null, "sha256": "sha256:263c1e7dd12bc75bd6a3cfccf2f087230c52f7e447ce82ad7f110f5ef48f0c8d", "bytes": 1209, "access": "open", "state": "verified", "reader": "read_table", "reader_status": "available", "identifier": "section[15]/table-wrap[1]#Tab2", "version": null, "note": "The list of the differentially expressed genes in the optimized prognostic gene signature was identified by the Cox-proportional hazards (Cox-PH) model", "structure": {"pmcid": "PMC7807455", "section_index": 15, "section_title": "Construction of the prognostic model", "row_count": 14, "column_count": 6}, "table": {"label": "Table 2", "caption": "The list of the differentially expressed genes in the optimized prognostic gene signature was identified by the Cox-proportional hazards (Cox-PH) model", "rows": [["Symbol", "Module", "Univariate Cox regression analysis", "LASSO coefficient"], ["HR", "95%CI", "P value"], ["ADORA3", "Blue", "1.570", "1.067–2.549", "3.40E−02", "0.44262"], ["CPA3", "Blue", "0.810", "0.679–0.965", "9.50E−03", "− 0.35894"], ["CPM", "Green", "0.748", "0.561–0.995", "2.30E−02", "− 0.26349"], ["EDN3", "Green", "0.830", "0.670–1.028", "4.40E−02", "− 0.12557"], ["FCRL2", "Blue", "2.465", "1.298–4.682", "2.90E−03", "1.38523"], ["MFNG", "Blue", "1.456", "1.127–1.879", "2.00E−03", "0.35734"], ["NAT1", "Green", "0.514", "0.368–0.717", "4.55E−05", "− 0.42755"], ["PCSK5", "Green", "1.477", "1.021–2.138", "1.95E−02", "0.30206"], ["PPARGC1A", "Green", "0.579", "0.399–0.842", "2.10E−03", "− 0.34355"], ["PRRX2", "Yellow", "1.260", "1.017–1.559", "1.70E−02", "0.04376"], ["TNFRSF17", "Blue", "0.780", "0.597–0.919", "3.45E−02", "− 0.21594"], ["WDR78", "Green", "0.334", "0.158–0.707", "2.05E−03", "− 0.07166"]], "row_count": 14, "column_count": 6, "numeric_cells": 51, "header_rows": 2, "locator": "section[15]/table-wrap[1]#Tab2"}}, {"id": "asset:table:pmid:33441161:3", "role": "table", "format": "jats-table", "media_type": "application/vnd.jats.table+json", "uri": null, "sha256": "sha256:7a8ac5781dd38202e6d33e3c01e05a95f55bcd936eb1d210ca1b2f5a3f5e8ee2", "bytes": 1696, "access": "open", "state": "verified", "reader": "read_table", "reader_status": "available", "identifier": "section[17]/table-wrap[1]#Tab3", "version": null, "note": "Identification of the prognosis-associated factors in colon cancer (the TCGA samples) using Cox regression analysis", "structure": {"pmcid": "PMC7807455", "section_index": 17, "section_title": "Identification of prognosis-associated clinical factors", "row_count": 14, "column_count": 6}, "table": {"label": "Table 3", "caption": "Identification of the prognosis-associated factors in colon cancer (the TCGA samples) using Cox regression analysis", "rows": [["Clinical characteristics", "TCGA (N = 432)", "Univariate", "Multivariate"], ["HR (95% CI)", "p value", "HR (95% CI)", "p value"], ["Age (years, mean ± sd)", "66.78 ± 12.88", "1.018 (1.001–1.035)", "3.408E−02", "1.047 (1.021–1.073)", "3.510E−04"], ["Gender (male/female)", "230/202", "1.077 (0.719–1.610)", "7.189E−01", "–", "–"], ["Pathologic M (M0/M1/–)", "319/59/54", "4.536 (2.851–7.218)", "2.649E−12", "1.501 (0.373–6.036)", "5.671E− 01"], ["Pathologic N (N0/N1/N2)", "254/101/77", "2.088 (1.648–2.644)", "1.342E−10", "1.614 (0.839–3.103)", "1.514E−01"], ["Pathologic T(T1/T2/T3/T4)", "11/75/296/50", "2.658 (1.775–3.979)", "1.116E−06", "3.561 (1.781–7.121)", "3.280E−04"], ["Pathologic stage (I/II/III/IV/–)", "73/167/123/59/10", "2.181 (1.719–2.767)", "3.376E−11", "1.123 (0.373–3.378)", "8.362E−01"], ["Colon polyps history (yes/no/–)", "128/239/65", "0.731 (0.426–1.255)", "2.537E− 01", "–", "–"], ["Lymphatic invasion (yes/no/–)", "150/241/41", "2.150 (1.392–3.320)", "4.125E− 04", "0.922 (0.489–1.737)", "8.024E− 01"], ["Recurrence (yes/no)", "78/292/62", "2.567 (1.636–4.029)", "2.113E−05", "1.881 (1.050–3.369)", "3.363E− 02"], ["PS model status (high/low)", "216/216", "3.287 (2.082–5.189)", "4.096E−08", "2.737 (1.447–5.178)", "1.970E−03"], ["Vital status (dead/alive)", "96/336", "–", "–", "–", "–"], ["Overall survival time (months, mean ± sd)", "29.44 ± 25.43", "–", "–", "–", "–"]], "row_count": 14, "column_count": 6, "numeric_cells": 51, "header_rows": 2, "locator": "section[17]/table-wrap[1]#Tab3"}}], "gaps": ["asset:data:geo:GSE17538 not downloaded", "asset:data:geo:GSE17538 licence not read", "asset:data:geo:GSE38832 not downloaded", "asset:data:geo:GSE38832 licence not read", "asset:data:geo:GSE44076 not downloaded", "asset:data:geo:GSE44076 licence not read", "asset:data:geo:GSE44861 not downloaded", "asset:data:geo:GSE44861 licence not read"]}, "analysis": {"state": "partial", "methods": [{"id": "method-1", "family": "survival_analysis", "specific": "cox_proportional_hazards", "label": "Survival analysis", "dsl_operations": ["cox_ph"], "missing_operations": [], "expressible": true, "parameters": {}, "data_shapes": ["time_to_event_with_censoring"], "evidence": {"score": 0.7, "band": "medium", "quote": "Cox regression"}}, {"id": "method-2", "family": null, "specific": null, "label": "MetaDE.ES method using the R MetaDE package", "dsl_operations": [], "missing_operations": [], "expressible": null, "parameters": {}, "data_shapes": [], "evidence": {"score": 1.0, "band": "verbatim", "quote": "The common DEGs across the TCGA, GSE44861, and GSE44076 datasets were identified using the MetaDE.ES methods in the R MetaDE package"}}], "targets": [], "gaps": ["method.reader_named_unmapped"]}, "capability": {"state": "complete", "requirements": [{"capability_id": "capability:computational_analysis", "label": "Computational analysis platform", "assay_families": ["meta_analysis", "machine_learning", "survival_analysis", "statistical_regression", "pca", "molecular_docking", "network_analysis", "differential_expression", "gwas"], "availability_state": "owned", "tier_unlocked": "R1", "candidate": "Automated Assays Laravel application and simulated adapters"}], "gaps": []}, "readiness": {"state": "complete", "tier": "R1", "blocking_axis": "none", "blocked_on": "nothing:replicable_now", "axes": {"method": {"tier": "R1", "expressible": true, "required_operations": ["cox_ph"], "missing_operations": [], "basis": "The paper names the method it used and the corpus's method extractor maps it onto the DSL catalogue: cox_proportional_hazards."}, "capability": {"tier": "R1", "capability_id": "capability:computational_analysis", "availability_state": "owned", "basis": "The computational analysis is owned. The physical bench the paper used is not, so a physical validation cannot be run here."}, "data": {"tier": "R1", "reachable": true, "accessions": ["GSE44861", "GSE44076", "GSE17538", "GSE38832"], "resolved_accessions": ["GSE44861", "GSE44076", "GSE17538", "GSE38832"], "statements": ["Besides, the RNA-seq data of colon cancer and the corresponding clinical information were downloaded from TCGA (https://gdc-portal.nci.nih.gov/). After sample selection, 473 samples including 432 tumor samples with clinical information and 41 normal samples were retained in this study."], "basis": "The paper names GSE44861, GSE44076, GSE17538, GSE38832 in National Center for Biotechnology Information (NCBI) gene expression omnibus (GEO) repository and the accession resolves in the repository. No dataset was downloaded and no licence was read."}}, "can_run": {"dsl_operations": ["cox_ph"], "assets": ["source:pmid:33441161", "data:geo:GSE17538", "asset:table:pmid:33441161:1", "asset:table:pmid:33441161:2", "asset:table:pmid:33441161:3"], "steps": ["run_analysis"]}, "must_build": {"dsl_operations": [], "converters": [], "readers": [], "capabilities": [], "data_gaps": ["data:geo:GSE17538"]}, "gaps": []}, "review": {"state": "partial", "machine_critique": {"kind": "extraction_review", "reader": {"model": "MiniMax-M3.1-Flash", "provider": "minimax", "provider_family": "minimax", "read_at": "2026-10-31T19:21:58Z", "independence": "single_reader"}, "evidence_check": {"method": "verbatim", "availability": null}, "calls": 3, "usage": {"prompt_tokens": 29930, "completion_tokens": 2749, "cached_tokens": 792}}, "human_critique": null, "stages": [{"id": "extraction", "state": "complete", "reader": "MiniMax-M3.1-Flash", "provider": "minimax"}], "gaps": ["review.independent_reader", "review.machine_critique", "review.human_critique"]}, "execution": {"state": "absent", "status": "not_run", "mode": null, "runs": [], "gaps": ["execution.not_run"]}, "provenance": {"entities": [{"id": "pmid:33441161", "type": "paper", "label": "pmid:33441161"}, {"id": "source:pmid:33441161", "type": "manuscript", "label": "PMID 33441161 full text"}, {"id": "data:geo:GSE17538", "type": "dataset", "label": "GEO GSE17538"}], "activities": [{"id": "activity-reading-sci-2026-11-01", "type": "classification", "used": [{"id": "pmid:33441161", "type": "paper", "label": "pmid:33441161"}, {"id": "source:pmid:33441161", "type": "manuscript", "label": "PMID 33441161 full text"}, {"id": "data:geo:GSE17538", "type": "dataset", "label": "GEO GSE17538"}], "agent": "agent:corpus-assay-engine"}, {"id": "activity-read-33441161", "type": "extraction", "used": ["source:pmid:33441161"], "agent": "agent:minimax-reader"}, {"id": "activity-resolve-GSE17538", "type": "accession_resolution", "used": ["data:geo:GSE17538"], "agent": "agent:corpus-assay-engine"}], "agents": [{"id": "agent:corpus-assay-engine", "type": "software", "label": "Corpus assay engine"}, {"id": "agent:minimax-reader", "type": "software", "label": "MiniMax literature reader"}], "source_run_id": "reading-sci-2026-11-01", "dsl_catalogue_fingerprint": "343fb30756ba6ec3", "capability_table_fingerprint": "2cb3e42f047d2ecf", "snapshot_id": "ba34b49490d9bfaf"}, "lineage": {"parent_id": "pmid:33441161", "parent_hash": "sha256:105b22850e84f6267a1eabdf20f5b2543cf914c6a198796b4f7239306582dc40", "fork_of": null, "generation": 4}, "gaps": ["asset:data:geo:GSE17538 licence not read", "asset:data:geo:GSE17538 not downloaded", "asset:data:geo:GSE38832 licence not read", "asset:data:geo:GSE38832 not downloaded", "asset:data:geo:GSE44076 licence not read", "asset:data:geo:GSE44076 not downloaded", "asset:data:geo:GSE44861 licence not read", "asset:data:geo:GSE44861 not downloaded", "execution.not_run", "method.reader_named_unmapped", "review.human_critique", "review.independent_reader", "review.machine_critique"], "assays": [{"role": "analysis", "definition_id": "survival_analysis", "definition_version": "f2132e96ae6c7a4e", "definition_digest": null, "required_operations": ["cox_ph"], "support_state": "supported", "source_hashes": {"dsl_catalogue": "f2132e96ae6c7a4e"}, "confidence": 0.7, "evidence": ["Cox regression"], "order_basis": "analysis_only", "id": "assay:1"}]},"meta":{"api_version":"v1","automation_ladder_snapshot":"ba34b49490d9bfaf","automation_ladder_caveats":["Method extraction is rule-based and has no hand-judged accuracy sample. Evidence bands order textual support; method agreement intervals are null (n=0), never probabilities. Work-type validation does not validate methods.","Operation coverage describes only explicitly named methods. It does not prove a complete protocol, compatible parameters, successful compilation or re-execution. Unrecognised or ambiguous methods require review.","Data reachability is a textual accession or public-data statement. No dataset was downloaded or checked for access, completeness or licence.","Capabilities are planning states seeded from the dated equipment register. No bench ownership, completed quote or partner booking is inferred. Procurement counts are dependencies, not guaranteed replications or financial returns.","Tier and blocker counts are deterministic assessments of this corpus, not measured agreement. R3 is reserved for procurement; unresolved methods and data require human work (R4). The most restrictive axis wins, with capability, method, data as tie-breaks. Resolving one blocker can leave another at the same tier."],"engine":"corpus_engine","engine_provider":"rule_based_v1+lex99e1195c7d6f","run_id":"run-20261023T122449232913","source":"esearch","source_detail":"PubMed mirror biomed_pubmed (read-only)","run_status":"complete","imported_at":"2026-11-03T20:16:52+00:00","generated_at":"2026-11-04T01:43:47+00:00","total_papers":5529,"total_assays_tracked":29,"automatable_assay_families":6,"validated":true,"caveat_count":9,"blocking_caveats":5,"caveats":[{"code":"low_evidence_dominates","basis":["4,152 of 5,529 classifications (75.1%) matched no cue evidence and sit at the 0.05 floor.","34 of 230 data_only calls (14.8%) are in that group."],"claim":"Work type and confidence bands","gloss":"Most records were classified from their title and framing alone, with assay-cue coverage at zero.","detail":"Most classifications in this run rest on no matched evidence at all. At the evidence floor the work type comes from title framing and a fixed prior, not from anything in the paper, so the published work-type split should be read as a rough triage signal rather than a measured distribution. The impact is bounded but not removed: since 2026-10-23 the engine excludes floor-confidence records from the shortlist entirely and publishes them separately as held out, so the recommendation is unaffected even though the census is.","status":"unverified","severity":"high"},{"code":"runtime_is_modelled","basis":["Runtime is summed from published per-assay hour figures. Timing awaits the first executed replication.","4,407 of 5,529 records (79.7%) model to 0.00 hours because no assay was matched, which the ranking then reads as \"cheapest\".","0 of 10 shortlisted records carry a 0.00-hour estimate."],"claim":"Estimated replication runtime","gloss":"The hour figures are estimates built from assay mentions; timing awaits the first executed replication.","detail":"The hour figures are a cost model derived from the bench steps implied by each matched assay family. The first executed replication will supply measured timing. Records without an assay match currently receive a zero-hour model value.","status":"unverified","severity":"high"},{"code":"signal_score_without_citations","basis":["5,529 of 5,529 records (100.0%) have no citation count from the source metadata."],"claim":"Signal score","gloss":"The signal score uses publication-type weight because the mirror supplied zero citation counts.","detail":"The source supplied no citation counts for any record in this run, so the signal score is publication-type weight only. The citation term of the ranking is inert here, and the shortlist is ordered by publication type alone.","status":"unverified","severity":"high"},{"code":"abstract_absent","basis":["1,667 of 5,529 records (30.2%) carry no abstract at all."],"claim":"Evidence base for classification","gloss":"Some records contain a title and publication type only, defining the available classification evidence.","detail":"Where the mirror contains a title and publication types only, those fields define the classifier evidence. A methods section is required for fuller automated and human review.","status":"unverified","severity":"medium"},{"code":"classifier_agreement_measured","basis":["Published two-way decision agreement 77.7% (310 of 399 decidable records) from a stratified hand-check of 438 real records.","Three-way diagnostic agreement 73.9% (288 of 390 decidable records).","data_only agreement 75.2% (100 of 133 decidable).","48 record(s) could not be decided from title and abstract and were excluded from the denominator.","56 analysis-only records were published under another work type, so the data_only share is not an upper bound."],"claim":"Published automatable decision","gloss":"This figure has been checked against a human reading the same papers, so we know how often it is right.","detail":"The published automatable / not-automatable distribution comes from a rule-based classifier that was hand-checked against a fixed ground-truth definition. The agreement rates below are measured, not estimated. The three-way work type remains a diagnostic and is reported separately.","status":"measured","severity":"high"},{"code":"llm_comparison_not_measured","basis":["rule_based_v1+lex99e1195c7d6f produced 5,529 of 5,529 classifications.","Measured on 438 labelled records; these are RULE-BASED figures, not model results."],"claim":"Rule-based versus LLM agreement","gloss":"Every number here is the rule engine’s own. Model comparison begins when a working API credential is connected and measured.","detail":"The published two-way decision agreed with a human reading on 310 of 399 decidable records (77.7%). The diagnostic three-way label agreed on 288 of 390 decidable records (73.9%). Every percentage in this run belongs to the rule engine. Model comparison begins when a working API credential is connected and measured.","status":"not_measured","severity":"high"},{"code":"confidence_is_a_band","basis":["low band: 135 of 210 hand-judged records were correct, 64.3% [57.6, 70.5] (95% CI).","medium band: 80 of 104 hand-judged records were correct, 76.9% [68.0, 84.0] (95% CI).","high band: 73 of 76 hand-judged records were correct, 96.0% [89.0, 98.7] (95% CI).","A fitted calibrated probability was built, measured and withdrawn: it overstated held-out accuracy and reorders nothing."],"claim":"Confidence band and evidence score","gloss":"The confidence band carries a measured accuracy interval; 0.85 represents relative rank strength.","detail":"Confidence on this run is a BAND plus its measured accuracy interval. The number stored alongside each record is a monotone evidence score that orders records; 0.85 represents relative rank strength. A fitted probability was withdrawn after it overstated held-out accuracy. Threshold on the band.","status":"measured","severity":"medium"},{"code":"three_way_split_is_diagnostic","basis":["The corpus is published at the two-way decision: automatable or not-automatable. The three-way split (data_only / physical / mixed) is published as a diagnostic with its measured reliability attached, not as a claim, because the rule engine's `mixed` call cannot be defended.","The engine called 22 record(s) mixed; 10 matched the human judgement (45.5%, 95% CI 26.9-65.3).","The engine's `mixed` call is right on 10/22 hand-judged records (45.5%, 95% CI 26.9%-65.3%); a constant `physical` guess scores 36.4%.","The engine's `mixed` call does not reliably beat a constant `physical` guess on the hand-judged records it labels mixed.","The sign of that difference flips between two independent samples, so the three-way refinement is not demonstrably informative.","The mixed stratum contributes a disproportionate share of errors relative to its size.","At title-only depth the physical/mixed split collapses: a title says that work was done, not whether it was also analysed."],"claim":"The published decision is two-way","gloss":"The three-way split is shown for diagnosis only. The published split is two ways.","detail":"Count and filter the corpus on automatable versus not-automatable. The data_only / physical / mixed split remains an internal engine diagnostic because the mixed call has lower measured reliability.","status":"measured","severity":"medium"},{"code":"automatable_flag_unproven","basis":["6 of 29 assay families are marked automatable now: meta_analysis, machine_learning, survival_analysis, pca, molecular_docking, differential_expression.","The flag is a rule over assay family and work type; validation begins with the first executed replication.","It inherits the 75.2% data_only agreement rate, because the flag requires the record to be analysis-only."],"claim":"Automatable now","gloss":"This flag marks assay families the rules classify as data-only. The first executed replication will validate it.","detail":"This flag marks families the rules consider replicable from data alone. Its validity depends on the analysis-only classification and will be measured through an executed replication.","status":"unverified","severity":"medium"}],"confidence_policy":"band_with_measured_interval","confidence_contract":{"policy":"band_with_measured_interval","summary":"Confidence is reported as a BAND with a measured accuracy interval. The raw evidence score supplies monotone ordering. A fitted point estimate was withdrawn after it overstated held-out accuracy.","evidence_score":"A monotone evidence score in [0,1] built from cue mass, axis separation and text coverage. Use it to order records. Interpret 0.85 as relative rank strength.","confidence_band":"low | medium | high. Consumers threshold on this value.","band_accuracy":"Wilson 95% interval on the measured agreement of the hand-judged records in this band.","calibrated_confidence":"WITHDRAWN. Reintroduction requires held-out evidence demonstrating reliable estimates across every bin."},"band_accuracy":{"low":{"n":210,"low":0.576,"band":"low","high":0.7046,"agree":135,"accuracy":0.6429},"high":{"n":76,"low":0.8903,"band":"high","high":0.9865,"agree":73,"accuracy":0.9605},"medium":{"n":104,"low":0.6795,"band":"medium","high":0.8397,"agree":80,"accuracy":0.7692}},"provider":"rule_based_v1+lex99e1195c7d6f","lexicon_id":"99e1195c7d6f","contract_published_at":"2026-10-23T12:25:29.022232+00:00","confidence_is_band":true,"confidence_is_probability":false,"decision_taxonomy":"two_way","decidable_fraction_two_way":0.8854,"decidable_fraction_two_way_low":0.8565,"decidable_fraction_two_way_high":0.9143,"decidable_fraction_three_way":0.8586,"decidable_fraction_three_way_low":0.8287,"decidable_fraction_three_way_high":0.8884,"decidable_population":5529,"validation_sample_size":438,"three_way_cost_fraction":0.0268,"three_way_cost_records":148,"decision_counts":{"automatable":230,"not_automatable":5299},"decision_split":{"automatable":{"count":230,"share":0.04159884246699222},"not_automatable":{"count":5299,"share":0.9584011575330078}},"diagnostic_work_type_counts":{"mixed":24,"physical":5275,"data_only":230}}}