{"data":{"sci_version": "1.2", "schema": "https://corpus.bntrg.co.uk/sci/1.0/sci.schema.json", "id": "pmid:39100839", "kind": "science-record", "revision": 3, "content_hash": "sha256:d56b04dd04464612efabac2673b3fecd5a3401a9c75b4a552fb27328dfc39900", "created_at": "2026-11-01T20:29:10Z", "updated_at": "2026-11-01T22:12:22Z", "generator": {"name": "corpus-assay-engine", "run_id": "reading-sci-2026-11-01"}, "paper": {"state": "complete", "title": "Machine learning developed an intratumor heterogeneity signature for predicting clinical outcome and immunotherapy benefit in bladder cancer.", "doi": "10.21037/tau-24-5", "pmid": "39100839", "authors": ["Cheng Chen", "Jun Zhang", "Xiaoshuang Liu", "Qianfeng Zhuang", "Hao Lu", "Jianquan Hou"], "journal": "Translational andrology and urology", "year": 2024, "abstract": "Background: Bladder cancer is a common malignancy with high invasion and poor clinical outcome. Intratumor heterogeneity (ITH) is linked to cancer progression and metastasis and high ITH can accelerate tumor evolution. Our objective is to develop an ITH-related signature (IRS) for predicting clinical outcome and immunotherapy benefit in bladder cancer.\nMethods: Integrative procedure containing ten machine learning methods was applied to develop an IRS with The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA), gene series expression (GSE)13507, GSE31684, GSE32984 and GSE48276 datasets. To evaluate the performance of IRS in predicting the immunotherapy benefit, we also used several predicting scores and three immunotherapy datasets, including GSE91061, GSE78220 and IMvigor210.\nResults: The predicting model constructed with Enet (alpha =0.2) algorithm had a highest average C-index of 0.69, which was suggested as the optimal IRS. As an independent risk factor for bladder cancer, IRS had a powerful performance in predicting the overall survival (OS) rate of patients, with an area under curve of 1-, 3- and 5-year receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve being 0.744, 0.791 and 0.816 in TCGA dataset. Bladder cancer patients with low IRS score presented with a higher level of immune-activated cells, cytolytic function and T cell co-stimulation. We also found a lower tumor immune dysfunction and exclusion (TIDE) score, lower immune escape score, higher programmed cell death protein 1 (PD-1) & cytotoxic T-lymphocyte associated protein 4 immunophenoscore, higher tumor mutation burden (TMB) score, higher response rate and better prognosis in bladder cancer with low IRS score. Bladder cancer cases with high IRS score had a higher half maximal inhibitory concentration value of common chemotherapy and targeted therapy regimens.\nConclusions: The current study developed an optimal IRS for bladder cancer patients, which acted as an indicator for predicting prognosis, stratifying risk and guiding treatment for bladder cancer patients. Further analysis should be focused on the exploration the differentially expressed genes (DEGs) and related underlying mechanism mediating the development of bladder cancer in different IRS score group.", "claims": [{"id": "claim-method", "statement": "Integrative procedure containing 10 machine learning methods was applied to develop an IRS.", "kind": "methodological", "target": null, "evidence": [{"asset": "source:pmid:39100839", "locator": "sections[9] \"Statistical analysis\" paragraph 2", "quote": "Integrative procedure containing 10 machine learning methods was applied to develop an IRS."}], "state": "complete"}, {"id": "claim-data-access", "statement": "Following inclusion criteria (pathological diagnosis of bladder urothelium carcinoma with completed prognostic information) and exclusion criteria (followed up for less than one month or died within one month after surgery or with other malignancies), we acquired mRNA data of bladder cancer patients from TCGA dataset (n=396), gene series expression (GSE)13507 (n=165), GSE31684 (n=90), GSE32984 (n=223) and GSE48276 (n=73) dataset.", "kind": "methodological", "target": null, "evidence": [{"asset": "source:pmid:39100839", "locator": "sections[4] \"Data acquisition and ITH score of bladder cancer cases\" paragraph 2", "quote": "Following inclusion criteria (pathological diagnosis of bladder urothelium carcinoma with completed prognostic information) and exclusion criteria (followed up for less than one month or died within one month after surgery or with other malignancies), we acquired mRNA data of bladder cancer patients from TCGA dataset (n=396), gene series expression (GSE)13507 (n=165), GSE31684 (n=90), GSE32984 (n=223) and GSE48276 (n=73) dataset."}], "state": "complete"}, {"id": "claim-target-result", "statement": "The IRS constructed by Enet (alpha =0.2) algorithm had a highest average C-index of 0.69, which was suggested as the optimal IRS", "kind": "qualitative", "target": null, "evidence": [{"asset": "source:pmid:39100839", "locator": "sections[12] \"Machine learning developed a prognostic IRS\" paragraph 2", "quote": "The IRS constructed by Enet (alpha =0.2) algorithm had a highest average C-index of 0.69, which was suggested as the optimal IRS (Figure 2A)."}], "state": "complete"}], "gaps": []}, "experiment": {"state": "complete", "objective": "The IRS constructed by Enet (alpha =0.2) algorithm had a highest average C-index of 0.69, which was suggested as the optimal IRS", "steps": [{"id": "read_published_estimate", "order": 1, "name": "Read the published estimate from the source", "kind": "other", "state": "complete", "blocked_on": null, "description": "The claim, method and evidence span published with the source article.", "duration_hours": null, "parameters": {}, "inputs": ["source:pmid:39100839"], "outputs": ["the published estimate and its evidence"], "instruments": [], "reagents": []}, {"id": "obtain_source_data", "order": 2, "name": "Obtain the source data from the named repository", "kind": "data-preparation", "state": "complete", "blocked_on": null, "description": "The GEO series accession resolves and its sample accessions are listed. This lane did not download the dataset or read its licence.", "duration_hours": null, "parameters": {}, "inputs": ["data:geo:GSE13507"], "outputs": ["the source data with its repository provenance"], "instruments": [], "reagents": []}, {"id": "run_analysis", "order": 3, "name": "Run the published analysis", "kind": "analysis", "state": "complete", "blocked_on": null, "description": "Apply the paper's statistical method to the resolved series and compare the result with the published target.", "duration_hours": null, "parameters": {}, "inputs": ["data:geo:GSE13507"], "outputs": ["the replicated result and its comparison"], "instruments": [], "reagents": []}], "materials": [], "instruments": [], "reagents": [], "conditions": {}, "gaps": []}, "data": {"state": "partial", "assets": [{"id": "source:pmid:39100839", "role": "manuscript", "format": "xml", "media_type": "application/xml", "uri": "https://doi.org/10.21037/tau-24-5", "sha256": 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bladder cancer patients from TCGA dataset (n=396), gene series expression (GSE)13507 (n=165), GSE31684 (n=90), GSE32984 (n=223) and GSE48276 (n=73) dataset.", "structure": {"repository": "GEO", "access_route": "GEO accession URL", "access_statement_verbatim": "Following inclusion criteria (pathological diagnosis of bladder urothelium carcinoma with completed prognostic information) and exclusion criteria (followed up for less than one month or died within one month after surgery or with other malignancies), we acquired mRNA data of bladder cancer patients from TCGA dataset (n=396), gene series expression (GSE)13507 (n=165), GSE31684 (n=90), GSE32984 (n=223) and GSE48276 (n=73) dataset.", "access_statement_kind": "repository_route_statement", "sample_accessions": ["GSM2420259", "GSM2420260", "GSM2420261", "GSM2420262", "GSM2420263", "GSM2420264", "GSM2420265", "GSM2420266", "GSM2420267", "GSM2420268", "GSM2420269", "GSM2420270", "GSM2420271", "GSM2420272", "GSM2420273", "GSM2420274", 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{"score": 0.8, "band": "high", "quote": "Chi-square"}}, {"id": "method-3", "family": null, "specific": null, "label": "Integrative procedure containing 10 machine learning methods, with Enet (alpha =0.2) selected as the optimal model using the LOOCV framework and C-index", "dsl_operations": [], "missing_operations": [], "expressible": null, "parameters": {}, "data_shapes": [], "evidence": {"score": 1.0, "band": "verbatim", "quote": "Integrative procedure containing 10 machine learning methods was applied to develop an IRS."}}], "targets": [], "gaps": ["method.reader_named_unmapped"]}, "capability": {"state": "complete", "requirements": [{"capability_id": "capability:computational_analysis", "label": "Computational analysis platform", "assay_families": ["meta_analysis", "machine_learning", "survival_analysis", "statistical_regression", "pca", "molecular_docking", "network_analysis", "differential_expression", "gwas"], "availability_state": "owned", "tier_unlocked": "R1", "candidate": "Automated Assays Laravel application and simulated adapters"}], "gaps": []}, "readiness": {"state": "complete", "tier": "R1", "blocking_axis": "none", "blocked_on": "nothing:replicable_now", "axes": {"method": {"tier": "R1", "expressible": true, "required_operations": ["group_summary", "welch_t", "bootstrap_mean_difference", "group_comparison_anova"], "missing_operations": [], "basis": "The paper names the method it used and the corpus's method extractor maps it onto the DSL catalogue: anova."}, "capability": {"tier": "R1", "capability_id": "capability:computational_analysis", "availability_state": "owned", "basis": "The computational analysis is owned. The physical bench the paper used is not, so a physical validation cannot be run here."}, "data": {"tier": "R1", "reachable": true, "accessions": ["GSE13507", "GSE31684", "GSE32984", "GSE48276", "GSE91061", "GSE78220"], "resolved_accessions": ["GSE13507", "GSE31684", "GSE32984", "GSE48276", "GSE91061", "GSE78220"], "statements": ["Following inclusion criteria (pathological diagnosis of bladder urothelium carcinoma with completed prognostic information) and exclusion criteria (followed up for less than one month or died within one month after surgery or with other malignancies), we acquired mRNA data of bladder cancer patients from TCGA dataset (n=396), gene series expression (GSE)13507 (n=165), GSE31684 (n=90), GSE32984 (n=223) and GSE48276 (n=73) dataset."], "basis": "The paper names GSE13507, GSE31684, GSE32984, GSE48276, GSE91061, GSE78220 in Gene Expression Omnibus and the accession resolves in the repository. No dataset was downloaded and no licence was read."}}, "can_run": {"dsl_operations": ["group_summary", "welch_t", "bootstrap_mean_difference", "group_comparison_anova"], "assets": ["source:pmid:39100839", "data:geo:GSE13507"], "steps": ["run_analysis"]}, "must_build": {"dsl_operations": [], "converters": [], "readers": [], "capabilities": [], "data_gaps": ["data:geo:GSE13507"]}, "gaps": []}, "review": {"state": "partial", "machine_critique": {"kind": "extraction_review", "reader": {"model": "MiniMax-M3.1-Flash", "provider": "minimax", "provider_family": "minimax", "read_at": "2026-11-01T19:26:23Z", "independence": "single_reader"}, "evidence_check": {"method": "verbatim", "availability": null}, "calls": 5, "usage": {"prompt_tokens": 10959, "completion_tokens": 2054, "cached_tokens": 0}}, "human_critique": null, "stages": [{"id": "extraction", "state": "complete", "reader": "MiniMax-M3.1-Flash", "provider": "minimax"}], "gaps": ["review.independent_reader", "review.machine_critique", "review.human_critique"]}, "execution": {"state": "absent", "status": "not_run", "mode": null, "runs": [], "gaps": ["execution.not_run"]}, "provenance": {"entities": [{"id": "pmid:39100839", "type": "paper", "label": "pmid:39100839"}, {"id": "source:pmid:39100839", "type": "manuscript", "label": "PMID 39100839 full text"}, {"id": "data:geo:GSE13507", "type": "dataset", "label": "GEO GSE13507"}], "activities": [{"id": "activity-reading-sci-2026-11-01", "type": "classification", "used": [{"id": "pmid:39100839", "type": "paper", "label": "pmid:39100839"}, {"id": "source:pmid:39100839", "type": "manuscript", "label": "PMID 39100839 full text"}, {"id": "data:geo:GSE13507", "type": "dataset", "label": "GEO GSE13507"}], "agent": "agent:corpus-assay-engine"}, {"id": "activity-read-39100839", "type": "extraction", "used": ["source:pmid:39100839"], "agent": "agent:minimax-reader"}, {"id": "activity-resolve-GSE13507", "type": "accession_resolution", "used": ["data:geo:GSE13507"], "agent": "agent:corpus-assay-engine"}], "agents": [{"id": "agent:corpus-assay-engine", "type": "software", "label": "Corpus assay engine"}, {"id": "agent:minimax-reader", "type": "software", "label": "MiniMax literature reader"}], "source_run_id": "reading-sci-2026-11-01", "dsl_catalogue_fingerprint": "343fb30756ba6ec3", "capability_table_fingerprint": "2cb3e42f047d2ecf", "snapshot_id": "ba34b49490d9bfaf"}, "lineage": {"parent_id": "pmid:39100839", "parent_hash": "sha256:c65238f30b4d6954cd19f100fbb4f13ea47907155d145618538154c94735a12c", "fork_of": null, "generation": 2}, "gaps": ["asset:data:geo:GSE13507 licence not read", "asset:data:geo:GSE13507 not downloaded", "asset:data:geo:GSE31684 licence not read", "asset:data:geo:GSE31684 not downloaded", "asset:data:geo:GSE32984 licence not read", "asset:data:geo:GSE32984 not downloaded", "asset:data:geo:GSE48276 licence not read", "asset:data:geo:GSE48276 not downloaded", "asset:data:geo:GSE78220 licence not read", "asset:data:geo:GSE78220 not downloaded", "asset:data:geo:GSE91061 licence not read", "asset:data:geo:GSE91061 not downloaded", "execution.not_run", "method.reader_named_unmapped", "review.human_critique", "review.independent_reader", "review.machine_critique"], "assays": [{"role": "analysis", "definition_id": "group_comparison", "definition_version": "f2132e96ae6c7a4e", "definition_digest": null, "required_operations": ["group_summary", "welch_t", "bootstrap_mean_difference", "group_comparison_anova"], "support_state": "supported", "source_hashes": {"dsl_catalogue": "f2132e96ae6c7a4e"}, "confidence": 0.8, "evidence": ["analysis of variance"], "order_basis": "analysis_only", "id": "assay:1"}]},"meta":{"api_version":"v1","automation_ladder_snapshot":"ba34b49490d9bfaf","automation_ladder_caveats":["Method extraction is rule-based and has no hand-judged accuracy sample. Evidence bands order textual support; method agreement intervals are null (n=0), never probabilities. Work-type validation does not validate methods.","Operation coverage describes only explicitly named methods. It does not prove a complete protocol, compatible parameters, successful compilation or re-execution. Unrecognised or ambiguous methods require review.","Data reachability is a textual accession or public-data statement. No dataset was downloaded or checked for access, completeness or licence.","Capabilities are planning states seeded from the dated equipment register. No bench ownership, completed quote or partner booking is inferred. Procurement counts are dependencies, not guaranteed replications or financial returns.","Tier and blocker counts are deterministic assessments of this corpus, not measured agreement. R3 is reserved for procurement; unresolved methods and data require human work (R4). The most restrictive axis wins, with capability, method, data as tie-breaks. Resolving one blocker can leave another at the same tier."],"engine":"corpus_engine","engine_provider":"rule_based_v1+lex99e1195c7d6f","run_id":"run-20261023T122449232913","source":"esearch","source_detail":"PubMed mirror biomed_pubmed (read-only)","run_status":"complete","imported_at":"2026-11-03T20:16:52+00:00","generated_at":"2026-11-04T01:46:58+00:00","total_papers":5529,"total_assays_tracked":29,"automatable_assay_families":6,"validated":true,"caveat_count":9,"blocking_caveats":5,"caveats":[{"code":"low_evidence_dominates","basis":["4,152 of 5,529 classifications (75.1%) matched no cue evidence and sit at the 0.05 floor.","34 of 230 data_only calls (14.8%) are in that group."],"claim":"Work type and confidence bands","gloss":"Most records were classified from their title and framing alone, with assay-cue coverage at zero.","detail":"Most classifications in this run rest on no matched evidence at all. At the evidence floor the work type comes from title framing and a fixed prior, not from anything in the paper, so the published work-type split should be read as a rough triage signal rather than a measured distribution. The impact is bounded but not removed: since 2026-10-23 the engine excludes floor-confidence records from the shortlist entirely and publishes them separately as held out, so the recommendation is unaffected even though the census is.","status":"unverified","severity":"high"},{"code":"runtime_is_modelled","basis":["Runtime is summed from published per-assay hour figures. Timing awaits the first executed replication.","4,407 of 5,529 records (79.7%) model to 0.00 hours because no assay was matched, which the ranking then reads as \"cheapest\".","0 of 10 shortlisted records carry a 0.00-hour estimate."],"claim":"Estimated replication runtime","gloss":"The hour figures are estimates built from assay mentions; timing awaits the first executed replication.","detail":"The hour figures are a cost model derived from the bench steps implied by each matched assay family. The first executed replication will supply measured timing. Records without an assay match currently receive a zero-hour model value.","status":"unverified","severity":"high"},{"code":"signal_score_without_citations","basis":["5,529 of 5,529 records (100.0%) have no citation count from the source metadata."],"claim":"Signal score","gloss":"The signal score uses publication-type weight because the mirror supplied zero citation counts.","detail":"The source supplied no citation counts for any record in this run, so the signal score is publication-type weight only. The citation term of the ranking is inert here, and the shortlist is ordered by publication type alone.","status":"unverified","severity":"high"},{"code":"abstract_absent","basis":["1,667 of 5,529 records (30.2%) carry no abstract at all."],"claim":"Evidence base for classification","gloss":"Some records contain a title and publication type only, defining the available classification evidence.","detail":"Where the mirror contains a title and publication types only, those fields define the classifier evidence. A methods section is required for fuller automated and human review.","status":"unverified","severity":"medium"},{"code":"classifier_agreement_measured","basis":["Published two-way decision agreement 77.7% (310 of 399 decidable records) from a stratified hand-check of 438 real records.","Three-way diagnostic agreement 73.9% (288 of 390 decidable records).","data_only agreement 75.2% (100 of 133 decidable).","48 record(s) could not be decided from title and abstract and were excluded from the denominator.","56 analysis-only records were published under another work type, so the data_only share is not an upper bound."],"claim":"Published automatable decision","gloss":"This figure has been checked against a human reading the same papers, so we know how often it is right.","detail":"The published automatable / not-automatable distribution comes from a rule-based classifier that was hand-checked against a fixed ground-truth definition. The agreement rates below are measured, not estimated. The three-way work type remains a diagnostic and is reported separately.","status":"measured","severity":"high"},{"code":"llm_comparison_not_measured","basis":["rule_based_v1+lex99e1195c7d6f produced 5,529 of 5,529 classifications.","Measured on 438 labelled records; these are RULE-BASED figures, not model results."],"claim":"Rule-based versus LLM agreement","gloss":"Every number here is the rule engine’s own. Model comparison begins when a working API credential is connected and measured.","detail":"The published two-way decision agreed with a human reading on 310 of 399 decidable records (77.7%). The diagnostic three-way label agreed on 288 of 390 decidable records (73.9%). Every percentage in this run belongs to the rule engine. Model comparison begins when a working API credential is connected and measured.","status":"not_measured","severity":"high"},{"code":"confidence_is_a_band","basis":["low band: 135 of 210 hand-judged records were correct, 64.3% [57.6, 70.5] (95% CI).","medium band: 80 of 104 hand-judged records were correct, 76.9% [68.0, 84.0] (95% CI).","high band: 73 of 76 hand-judged records were correct, 96.0% [89.0, 98.7] (95% CI).","A fitted calibrated probability was built, measured and withdrawn: it overstated held-out accuracy and reorders nothing."],"claim":"Confidence band and evidence score","gloss":"The confidence band carries a measured accuracy interval; 0.85 represents relative rank strength.","detail":"Confidence on this run is a BAND plus its measured accuracy interval. The number stored alongside each record is a monotone evidence score that orders records; 0.85 represents relative rank strength. A fitted probability was withdrawn after it overstated held-out accuracy. Threshold on the band.","status":"measured","severity":"medium"},{"code":"three_way_split_is_diagnostic","basis":["The corpus is published at the two-way decision: automatable or not-automatable. The three-way split (data_only / physical / mixed) is published as a diagnostic with its measured reliability attached, not as a claim, because the rule engine's `mixed` call cannot be defended.","The engine called 22 record(s) mixed; 10 matched the human judgement (45.5%, 95% CI 26.9-65.3).","The engine's `mixed` call is right on 10/22 hand-judged records (45.5%, 95% CI 26.9%-65.3%); a constant `physical` guess scores 36.4%.","The engine's `mixed` call does not reliably beat a constant `physical` guess on the hand-judged records it labels mixed.","The sign of that difference flips between two independent samples, so the three-way refinement is not demonstrably informative.","The mixed stratum contributes a disproportionate share of errors relative to its size.","At title-only depth the physical/mixed split collapses: a title says that work was done, not whether it was also analysed."],"claim":"The published decision is two-way","gloss":"The three-way split is shown for diagnosis only. The published split is two ways.","detail":"Count and filter the corpus on automatable versus not-automatable. The data_only / physical / mixed split remains an internal engine diagnostic because the mixed call has lower measured reliability.","status":"measured","severity":"medium"},{"code":"automatable_flag_unproven","basis":["6 of 29 assay families are marked automatable now: meta_analysis, machine_learning, survival_analysis, pca, molecular_docking, differential_expression.","The flag is a rule over assay family and work type; validation begins with the first executed replication.","It inherits the 75.2% data_only agreement rate, because the flag requires the record to be analysis-only."],"claim":"Automatable now","gloss":"This flag marks assay families the rules classify as data-only. The first executed replication will validate it.","detail":"This flag marks families the rules consider replicable from data alone. Its validity depends on the analysis-only classification and will be measured through an executed replication.","status":"unverified","severity":"medium"}],"confidence_policy":"band_with_measured_interval","confidence_contract":{"policy":"band_with_measured_interval","summary":"Confidence is reported as a BAND with a measured accuracy interval. The raw evidence score supplies monotone ordering. A fitted point estimate was withdrawn after it overstated held-out accuracy.","evidence_score":"A monotone evidence score in [0,1] built from cue mass, axis separation and text coverage. Use it to order records. Interpret 0.85 as relative rank strength.","confidence_band":"low | medium | high. Consumers threshold on this value.","band_accuracy":"Wilson 95% interval on the measured agreement of the hand-judged records in this band.","calibrated_confidence":"WITHDRAWN. Reintroduction requires held-out evidence demonstrating reliable estimates across every bin."},"band_accuracy":{"low":{"n":210,"low":0.576,"band":"low","high":0.7046,"agree":135,"accuracy":0.6429},"high":{"n":76,"low":0.8903,"band":"high","high":0.9865,"agree":73,"accuracy":0.9605},"medium":{"n":104,"low":0.6795,"band":"medium","high":0.8397,"agree":80,"accuracy":0.7692}},"provider":"rule_based_v1+lex99e1195c7d6f","lexicon_id":"99e1195c7d6f","contract_published_at":"2026-10-23T12:25:29.022232+00:00","confidence_is_band":true,"confidence_is_probability":false,"decision_taxonomy":"two_way","decidable_fraction_two_way":0.8854,"decidable_fraction_two_way_low":0.8565,"decidable_fraction_two_way_high":0.9143,"decidable_fraction_three_way":0.8586,"decidable_fraction_three_way_low":0.8287,"decidable_fraction_three_way_high":0.8884,"decidable_population":5529,"validation_sample_size":438,"three_way_cost_fraction":0.0268,"three_way_cost_records":148,"decision_counts":{"automatable":230,"not_automatable":5299},"decision_split":{"automatable":{"count":230,"share":0.04159884246699222},"not_automatable":{"count":5299,"share":0.9584011575330078}},"diagnostic_work_type_counts":{"mixed":24,"physical":5275,"data_only":230}}}