{"data":{"sci_version": "1.2", "schema": "https://corpus.bntrg.co.uk/sci/1.0/sci.schema.json", "id": "pmid:39470826", "kind": "science-record", "revision": 3, "content_hash": "sha256:7dba0b98542ca4e58276f41cbf901446a43204c76a9e75ce4b43244d28b2e7e1", "created_at": "2026-11-01T20:29:43Z", "updated_at": "2026-11-01T22:13:02Z", "generator": {"name": "corpus-assay-engine", "run_id": "reading-sci-2026-11-01"}, "paper": {"state": "complete", "title": "Identifying the prognostic significance of mitophagy-associated genes in multiple myeloma: a novel risk model construction.", "doi": "10.1007/s10238-024-01499-6", "pmid": "39470826", "authors": ["Rui Min", "Zeyu Hu", "Yulan Zhou"], "journal": "Clinical and experimental medicine", "year": 2024, "abstract": "Multiple myeloma (MM) is a highly heterogeneous hematological malignancy that is currently incurable. Individualized therapeutic approaches based on accurate risk assessment are essential for improving the prognosis of MM patients. Nevertheless, current prognostic models for MM exhibit certain limitations and prognosis heterogeneity still an unresolved issue. Recent studies have highlighted the pivotal involvement of mitochondrial autophagy in the development and drug sensitivity of MM. This study seeks to conduct an integrative analysis of the prognostic significance and immune microenvironment of mitophagy-related signature in MM, with the aim of constructing a novel predictive risk model. GSE4581 and GSE47552 datasets were acquired from the Gene Expression Omnibus database. MM-differentially expressed genes (DEGs) were identified by limma between MM samples and normal samples in GSE47552. Mitophagy key module genes were obtained by weighted gene co-expression network analysis in the Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA)-MM dataset. Mitophagy DEGs were identified by the overlap genes between MM-DEGs and mitophagy key module genes. Prognostic genes were selected through univariate Cox regression and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) analysis, and a risk model was subsequently constructed based on these prognostic genes. Subsequently, the MM samples were stratified into high- and low-risk groups based on their median risk scores. The validity of the risk model was further evaluated using the GSE4581 dataset. Moreover, a nomogram was developed using the independent prognostic factors identified from the risk score and various clinical indicators. Additionally, analyses were conducted on immune infiltration, immune scores, immune checkpoint, and chemotherapy drug sensitivity. The 17 mitophagy DEGs were obtained by intersection of 803 MM-DEGs and 1084 mitophagy key module genes. Five prognostic genes (CDC6, PRIM1, SNRPB, TOP2A, and ZNF486) were selected via LASSO and univariate cox regression analyses. The predictive performance of the risk model, which was constructed based on the five prognostic genes, demonstrated favorable results in both TCGA-MM and GSE4581 datasets as indicated by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. In addition, calibration curve, ROC curve, and decision curve analysis curve corroborated that the nomogram exhibited superior predictive accuracy for MM. Furthermore, immune analysis results indicated a significant difference in stromal scores of two risk groups categorized on median risk scores. And four immune checkpoints (CD274, CTLA4, LAG3, and PDCD1LG2) showed significant differences in different risk groups. The analysis of chemotherapy drug sensitivity revealed that etoposide and doxorubicin, which target TOP2A, exhibited superior treatment outcomes in the high-risk group. A novel prognostic model for MM was developed and validated, demonstrating significant potential in predicting patient outcomes and providing valuable guidance for personalized immunotherapy counseling.", "claims": [{"id": "claim-method", "statement": "Prognostic genes were selected through univariate Cox regression and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) analysis, and a risk model was subsequently constructed based on these prognostic genes.", "kind": "methodological", "target": null, "evidence": [{"asset": "source:pmid:39470826", "locator": "sections[0] \"Abstract\" paragraph 1", "quote": "Prognostic genes were selected through univariate Cox regression and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) analysis, and a risk model was subsequently constructed based on these prognostic genes."}], "state": "complete"}, {"id": "claim-data-access", "statement": "The public datasets used in this article, including GSE4581, GSE47552 dataset, and Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA)-MM dataset. 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The original contributions presented in the study are included in the article and in the supplementary material."}], "state": "complete"}, {"id": "claim-target-result", "statement": "A novel prognostic model for MM was developed and validated, demonstrating significant potential in predicting patient outcomes and providing valuable guidance for personalized immunotherapy counseling.", "kind": "qualitative", "target": null, "evidence": [{"asset": "source:pmid:39470826", "locator": "sections[0] \"Abstract\" paragraph 1", "quote": "A novel prognostic model for MM was developed and validated, demonstrating significant potential in predicting patient outcomes and providing valuable guidance for personalized immunotherapy counseling."}], "state": "complete"}], "gaps": []}, "experiment": {"state": "complete", "objective": "A novel prognostic model for MM was developed and validated, demonstrating significant potential in predicting patient outcomes and providing valuable guidance for personalized immunotherapy counseling.", "steps": [{"id": "read_published_estimate", "order": 1, "name": "Read the published estimate from the source", "kind": "other", "state": "complete", "blocked_on": null, "description": "The claim, method and evidence span published with the source article.", "duration_hours": null, "parameters": {}, "inputs": ["source:pmid:39470826"], "outputs": ["the published estimate and its evidence"], "instruments": [], "reagents": []}, {"id": "obtain_source_data", "order": 2, "name": "Obtain the source data from the named repository", "kind": "data-preparation", "state": "complete", "blocked_on": null, "description": "The GEO series accession resolves and its sample accessions are listed. 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computational analysis is owned. The physical bench the paper used is not, so a physical validation cannot be run here."}, "data": {"tier": "R1", "reachable": true, "accessions": ["GSE4581", "GSE47552"], "resolved_accessions": ["GSE4581", "GSE47552"], "statements": ["The public datasets used in this article, including GSE4581, GSE47552 dataset, and Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA)-MM dataset. GSE4581 and GSE47552 dataset can be downloaded in the GEO database, Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA)-MM dataset was obtained from TCGA. The original contributions presented in the study are included in the article and in the supplementary material."], "basis": "The paper names GSE4581, GSE47552 in Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) and the accession resolves in the repository. No dataset was downloaded and no licence was read."}}, "can_run": {"dsl_operations": ["cox_ph"], "assets": ["source:pmid:39470826", "data:geo:GSE4581"], "steps": ["run_analysis"]}, "must_build": {"dsl_operations": [], "converters": [], "readers": [], "capabilities": [], "data_gaps": ["data:geo:GSE4581"]}, "gaps": []}, "review": {"state": "partial", "machine_critique": {"kind": "extraction_review", "reader": {"model": "MiniMax-M3.1-Flash", "provider": "minimax", "provider_family": "minimax", "read_at": "2026-11-01T19:37:07Z", "independence": "single_reader"}, "evidence_check": {"method": "verbatim", "availability": "verbatim"}, "calls": 5, "usage": {"prompt_tokens": 14703, "completion_tokens": 2011, "cached_tokens": 264}}, "human_critique": null, "stages": [{"id": "extraction", "state": "complete", "reader": "MiniMax-M3.1-Flash", "provider": "minimax"}], "gaps": ["review.independent_reader", "review.machine_critique", "review.human_critique"]}, "execution": {"state": "absent", "status": "not_run", "mode": null, "runs": [], "gaps": ["execution.not_run"]}, "provenance": {"entities": [{"id": "pmid:39470826", "type": "paper", "label": "pmid:39470826"}, {"id": "source:pmid:39470826", "type": "manuscript", "label": "PMID 39470826 full text"}, {"id": "data:geo:GSE4581", "type": "dataset", "label": "GEO GSE4581"}], "activities": [{"id": "activity-reading-sci-2026-11-01", "type": "classification", "used": [{"id": "pmid:39470826", "type": "paper", "label": "pmid:39470826"}, {"id": "source:pmid:39470826", "type": "manuscript", "label": "PMID 39470826 full text"}, {"id": "data:geo:GSE4581", "type": "dataset", "label": "GEO GSE4581"}], "agent": "agent:corpus-assay-engine"}, {"id": "activity-read-39470826", "type": "extraction", "used": ["source:pmid:39470826"], "agent": "agent:minimax-reader"}, {"id": "activity-resolve-GSE4581", "type": "accession_resolution", "used": ["data:geo:GSE4581"], "agent": "agent:corpus-assay-engine"}], "agents": [{"id": "agent:corpus-assay-engine", "type": "software", "label": "Corpus assay engine"}, {"id": "agent:minimax-reader", "type": "software", "label": "MiniMax literature reader"}], "source_run_id": "reading-sci-2026-11-01", "dsl_catalogue_fingerprint": "343fb30756ba6ec3", "capability_table_fingerprint": "2cb3e42f047d2ecf", "snapshot_id": "ba34b49490d9bfaf"}, "lineage": {"parent_id": "pmid:39470826", "parent_hash": "sha256:7dd1d28437d8d3accb8979143815082dc2b889463db1d03f3214f9f8081c7a2f", "fork_of": null, "generation": 2}, "gaps": ["asset:data:geo:GSE4581 licence not read", "asset:data:geo:GSE4581 not downloaded", "asset:data:geo:GSE47552 licence not read", "asset:data:geo:GSE47552 not downloaded", "execution.not_run", "review.human_critique", "review.independent_reader", "review.machine_critique"], "assays": [{"role": "analysis", "definition_id": "survival_analysis", "definition_version": "f2132e96ae6c7a4e", "definition_digest": null, "required_operations": ["cox_ph"], "support_state": "supported", "source_hashes": {"dsl_catalogue": "f2132e96ae6c7a4e"}, "confidence": 1.0, "evidence": ["Prognostic genes were selected through univariate Cox regression and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) analysis, and a risk model was subsequently constructed based on these prognostic genes."], "order_basis": "analysis_only", "id": "assay:1"}]},"meta":{"api_version":"v1","automation_ladder_snapshot":"ba34b49490d9bfaf","automation_ladder_caveats":["Method extraction is rule-based and has no hand-judged accuracy sample. Evidence bands order textual support; method agreement intervals are null (n=0), never probabilities. Work-type validation does not validate methods.","Operation coverage describes only explicitly named methods. It does not prove a complete protocol, compatible parameters, successful compilation or re-execution. Unrecognised or ambiguous methods require review.","Data reachability is a textual accession or public-data statement. No dataset was downloaded or checked for access, completeness or licence.","Capabilities are planning states seeded from the dated equipment register. No bench ownership, completed quote or partner booking is inferred. Procurement counts are dependencies, not guaranteed replications or financial returns.","Tier and blocker counts are deterministic assessments of this corpus, not measured agreement. R3 is reserved for procurement; unresolved methods and data require human work (R4). The most restrictive axis wins, with capability, method, data as tie-breaks. Resolving one blocker can leave another at the same tier."],"engine":"corpus_engine","engine_provider":"rule_based_v1+lex99e1195c7d6f","run_id":"run-20261023T122449232913","source":"esearch","source_detail":"PubMed mirror biomed_pubmed (read-only)","run_status":"complete","imported_at":"2026-11-03T20:16:52+00:00","generated_at":"2026-11-04T02:52:31+00:00","total_papers":5529,"total_assays_tracked":29,"automatable_assay_families":6,"validated":true,"caveat_count":9,"blocking_caveats":5,"caveats":[{"code":"low_evidence_dominates","basis":["4,152 of 5,529 classifications (75.1%) matched no cue evidence and sit at the 0.05 floor.","34 of 230 data_only calls (14.8%) are in that group."],"claim":"Work type and confidence bands","gloss":"Most records were classified from their title and framing alone, with assay-cue coverage at zero.","detail":"Most classifications in this run rest on no matched evidence at all. At the evidence floor the work type comes from title framing and a fixed prior, not from anything in the paper, so the published work-type split should be read as a rough triage signal rather than a measured distribution. The impact is bounded but not removed: since 2026-10-23 the engine excludes floor-confidence records from the shortlist entirely and publishes them separately as held out, so the recommendation is unaffected even though the census is.","status":"unverified","severity":"high"},{"code":"runtime_is_modelled","basis":["Runtime is summed from published per-assay hour figures. Timing awaits the first executed replication.","4,407 of 5,529 records (79.7%) model to 0.00 hours because no assay was matched, which the ranking then reads as \"cheapest\".","0 of 10 shortlisted records carry a 0.00-hour estimate."],"claim":"Estimated replication runtime","gloss":"The hour figures are estimates built from assay mentions; timing awaits the first executed replication.","detail":"The hour figures are a cost model derived from the bench steps implied by each matched assay family. The first executed replication will supply measured timing. Records without an assay match currently receive a zero-hour model value.","status":"unverified","severity":"high"},{"code":"signal_score_without_citations","basis":["5,529 of 5,529 records (100.0%) have no citation count from the source metadata."],"claim":"Signal score","gloss":"The signal score uses publication-type weight because the mirror supplied zero citation counts.","detail":"The source supplied no citation counts for any record in this run, so the signal score is publication-type weight only. The citation term of the ranking is inert here, and the shortlist is ordered by publication type alone.","status":"unverified","severity":"high"},{"code":"abstract_absent","basis":["1,667 of 5,529 records (30.2%) carry no abstract at all."],"claim":"Evidence base for classification","gloss":"Some records contain a title and publication type only, defining the available classification evidence.","detail":"Where the mirror contains a title and publication types only, those fields define the classifier evidence. A methods section is required for fuller automated and human review.","status":"unverified","severity":"medium"},{"code":"classifier_agreement_measured","basis":["Published two-way decision agreement 77.7% (310 of 399 decidable records) from a stratified hand-check of 438 real records.","Three-way diagnostic agreement 73.9% (288 of 390 decidable records).","data_only agreement 75.2% (100 of 133 decidable).","48 record(s) could not be decided from title and abstract and were excluded from the denominator.","56 analysis-only records were published under another work type, so the data_only share is not an upper bound."],"claim":"Published automatable decision","gloss":"This figure has been checked against a human reading the same papers, so we know how often it is right.","detail":"The published automatable / not-automatable distribution comes from a rule-based classifier that was hand-checked against a fixed ground-truth definition. The agreement rates below are measured, not estimated. The three-way work type remains a diagnostic and is reported separately.","status":"measured","severity":"high"},{"code":"llm_comparison_not_measured","basis":["rule_based_v1+lex99e1195c7d6f produced 5,529 of 5,529 classifications.","Measured on 438 labelled records; these are RULE-BASED figures, not model results."],"claim":"Rule-based versus LLM agreement","gloss":"Every number here is the rule engine’s own. Model comparison begins when a working API credential is connected and measured.","detail":"The published two-way decision agreed with a human reading on 310 of 399 decidable records (77.7%). The diagnostic three-way label agreed on 288 of 390 decidable records (73.9%). Every percentage in this run belongs to the rule engine. Model comparison begins when a working API credential is connected and measured.","status":"not_measured","severity":"high"},{"code":"confidence_is_a_band","basis":["low band: 135 of 210 hand-judged records were correct, 64.3% [57.6, 70.5] (95% CI).","medium band: 80 of 104 hand-judged records were correct, 76.9% [68.0, 84.0] (95% CI).","high band: 73 of 76 hand-judged records were correct, 96.0% [89.0, 98.7] (95% CI).","A fitted calibrated probability was built, measured and withdrawn: it overstated held-out accuracy and reorders nothing."],"claim":"Confidence band and evidence score","gloss":"The confidence band carries a measured accuracy interval; 0.85 represents relative rank strength.","detail":"Confidence on this run is a BAND plus its measured accuracy interval. The number stored alongside each record is a monotone evidence score that orders records; 0.85 represents relative rank strength. A fitted probability was withdrawn after it overstated held-out accuracy. Threshold on the band.","status":"measured","severity":"medium"},{"code":"three_way_split_is_diagnostic","basis":["The corpus is published at the two-way decision: automatable or not-automatable. The three-way split (data_only / physical / mixed) is published as a diagnostic with its measured reliability attached, not as a claim, because the rule engine's `mixed` call cannot be defended.","The engine called 22 record(s) mixed; 10 matched the human judgement (45.5%, 95% CI 26.9-65.3).","The engine's `mixed` call is right on 10/22 hand-judged records (45.5%, 95% CI 26.9%-65.3%); a constant `physical` guess scores 36.4%.","The engine's `mixed` call does not reliably beat a constant `physical` guess on the hand-judged records it labels mixed.","The sign of that difference flips between two independent samples, so the three-way refinement is not demonstrably informative.","The mixed stratum contributes a disproportionate share of errors relative to its size.","At title-only depth the physical/mixed split collapses: a title says that work was done, not whether it was also analysed."],"claim":"The published decision is two-way","gloss":"The three-way split is shown for diagnosis only. The published split is two ways.","detail":"Count and filter the corpus on automatable versus not-automatable. The data_only / physical / mixed split remains an internal engine diagnostic because the mixed call has lower measured reliability.","status":"measured","severity":"medium"},{"code":"automatable_flag_unproven","basis":["6 of 29 assay families are marked automatable now: meta_analysis, machine_learning, survival_analysis, pca, molecular_docking, differential_expression.","The flag is a rule over assay family and work type; validation begins with the first executed replication.","It inherits the 75.2% data_only agreement rate, because the flag requires the record to be analysis-only."],"claim":"Automatable now","gloss":"This flag marks assay families the rules classify as data-only. The first executed replication will validate it.","detail":"This flag marks families the rules consider replicable from data alone. Its validity depends on the analysis-only classification and will be measured through an executed replication.","status":"unverified","severity":"medium"}],"confidence_policy":"band_with_measured_interval","confidence_contract":{"policy":"band_with_measured_interval","summary":"Confidence is reported as a BAND with a measured accuracy interval. The raw evidence score supplies monotone ordering. A fitted point estimate was withdrawn after it overstated held-out accuracy.","evidence_score":"A monotone evidence score in [0,1] built from cue mass, axis separation and text coverage. Use it to order records. Interpret 0.85 as relative rank strength.","confidence_band":"low | medium | high. Consumers threshold on this value.","band_accuracy":"Wilson 95% interval on the measured agreement of the hand-judged records in this band.","calibrated_confidence":"WITHDRAWN. Reintroduction requires held-out evidence demonstrating reliable estimates across every bin."},"band_accuracy":{"low":{"n":210,"low":0.576,"band":"low","high":0.7046,"agree":135,"accuracy":0.6429},"high":{"n":76,"low":0.8903,"band":"high","high":0.9865,"agree":73,"accuracy":0.9605},"medium":{"n":104,"low":0.6795,"band":"medium","high":0.8397,"agree":80,"accuracy":0.7692}},"provider":"rule_based_v1+lex99e1195c7d6f","lexicon_id":"99e1195c7d6f","contract_published_at":"2026-10-23T12:25:29.022232+00:00","confidence_is_band":true,"confidence_is_probability":false,"decision_taxonomy":"two_way","decidable_fraction_two_way":0.8854,"decidable_fraction_two_way_low":0.8565,"decidable_fraction_two_way_high":0.9143,"decidable_fraction_three_way":0.8586,"decidable_fraction_three_way_low":0.8287,"decidable_fraction_three_way_high":0.8884,"decidable_population":5529,"validation_sample_size":438,"three_way_cost_fraction":0.0268,"three_way_cost_records":148,"decision_counts":{"automatable":230,"not_automatable":5299},"decision_split":{"automatable":{"count":230,"share":0.04159884246699222},"not_automatable":{"count":5299,"share":0.9584011575330078}},"diagnostic_work_type_counts":{"mixed":24,"physical":5275,"data_only":230}}}