{"data":{"sci_version": "1.2", "schema": "https://corpus.bntrg.co.uk/sci/1.0/sci.schema.json", "id": "pmid:39991758", "kind": "science-record", "revision": 4, "content_hash": "sha256:422699bb19935df0ffc71189386b4a8adbcdb7a67d2d3065df4be80e2621d72b", "created_at": "2026-11-01T20:30:14Z", "updated_at": "2026-11-01T22:56:09Z", "generator": {"name": "corpus-assay-engine", "run_id": "reading-sci-2026-11-01"}, "paper": {"state": "complete", "title": "Establishment of a nomogram model based on immune-related genes using machine learning for aortic dissection diagnosis and immunomodulation assessment.", "doi": "10.7150/ijms.100572", "pmid": "39991758", "authors": ["Yanjun Hou", "Yangyang Zhao", "Zhensu Shi", "Yipeng Pan", "Kaijia Shi", "Chaoyang Zhao", "Shengnan Liu", "Yongkun Chen", "Lini Zhao", "Jizhen Wu", "Guangquan Ge", "Wei Jie"], "journal": "International journal of medical sciences", "year": 2025, "abstract": "The clinical manifestation of aortic dissection (AD) is complex and varied, making early diagnosis crucial for patient survival. This study aimed to identify immune-related markers to establish a nomogram model for AD diagnosis. Three datasets from GEO-GSE52093, GSE147026 and GSE153434-were combined and used for identification of immune-related causative genes using weighted gene co-expression network analysis, and 136 immune-related genes were obtained. Then, 15 pivotal genes were screened by the protein-protein interaction network. Through machine learning including the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator algorithm, random forest algorithm, and multivariate logistic regression, four key feature genes were obtained-CXCL1, ITGA5, PTX3, and TIMP1-and the diagnostic scores based on these four genes were proved to be effective in distinguishing between AD patients and healthy donors. External dataset (GSE98770 and GSE190635) validation revealed this nomogram displayed strong predictive significance. Further analysis revealed that these genes are related with neutrophils, resting NK cells, resting mast cells, activated mast cells, activated dendritic cells, central memory CD4 T cells, γδ T cells, natural killer T cells, and myeloid-derived suppressor cells in AD. Finally, these four genes were validated to be upregulated in AD patients' tissue and serum samples compared with controls. These results suggest that this nomogram model, using machine learning identified four immune-related genes CXCL1, ITGA5, PTX3, and TIMP1, displays superior diagnostic ability in distinguishing AD and healthy individuals, and immune cells commonly associated with these hub genes may be therapeutic targets for AD.", "claims": [{"id": "claim-method", "statement": "Three datasets from GEO—GSE52093, GSE147026 and GSE153434—were combined and used for identification of immune-related causative genes using weighted gene co-expression network analysis, and 136 immune-related genes were obtained.", "kind": "methodological", "target": null, "evidence": [{"asset": "source:pmid:39991758", "locator": "sections[0] \"Abstract\" paragraph 1", "quote": "Three datasets from GEO—GSE52093, GSE147026 and GSE153434—were combined and used for identification of immune-related causative genes using weighted gene co-expression network analysis, and 136 immune-related genes were obtained."}], "state": "complete"}, {"id": "claim-data-access", "statement": "Data is provided within the manuscript or supplementary information files. 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The link for download is: http://github.com/Houyanjun1/code."}], "state": "complete"}, {"id": "claim-target-result", "statement": "A four-gene diagnostic nomogram based on CXCL1, ITGA5, PTX3, and TIMP1 showed strong diagnostic performance for aortic dissection, with ROC AUC values of 0.972 in the training set and 0.933 in the GSE98770 external validation set.", "kind": "quantitative", "target": {"value": 0.05, "unit": "p-value", "tolerance": null, "source": "First, in terms of the training set, the scores for AD patients were significantly higher than those of the unaffected population (P < 0.05) (Figure 4A), and the AUC value of the ROC curve was higher, at 0.972 (Figure 4B)."}, "evidence": [{"asset": "source:pmid:39991758", "locator": "sections[0] \"Abstract\" paragraph 1", "quote": "Three datasets from GEO—GSE52093, GSE147026 and GSE153434—were combined and used for identification of immune-related causative genes using weighted gene co-expression network analysis, and 136 immune-related genes were obtained."}, {"asset": "source:pmid:39991758", "locator": "sections[0] \"Abstract\" paragraph 1", "quote": "Through machine learning including the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator algorithm, random forest algorithm, and multivariate logistic regression, four key feature genes were obtained—CXCL1, ITGA5, PTX3, and TIMP1—and the diagnostic scores based on these four genes were proved to be effective in distinguishing between AD patients and healthy donors."}, {"asset": "source:pmid:39991758", "locator": "sections[20] \"Validation and performance evaluation of the predictive models\" paragraph 2", "quote": "First, in terms of the training set, the scores for AD patients were significantly higher than those of the unaffected population (P < 0.05) (Figure 4A), and the AUC value of the ROC curve was higher, at 0.972 (Figure 4B)."}, {"asset": "source:pmid:39991758", "locator": "sections[20] \"Validation and performance evaluation of the predictive models\" paragraph 2", "quote": "Second, the diagnostic scores in the AD group were significantly higher than those in the unaffected population in the external validation set (GSE98770) (P < 0.05) (Figure 4D), and the ROC curve showed an AUC value of 0.933 for the model (Figure 4E)."}], "state": "complete"}], "gaps": []}, "experiment": {"state": "partial", "objective": "A four-gene diagnostic nomogram based on CXCL1, ITGA5, PTX3, and TIMP1 showed strong diagnostic performance for aortic dissection, with ROC AUC values of 0.972 in the training set and 0.933 in the GSE98770 external validation set.", "steps": [{"id": "read_published_estimate", "order": 1, "name": "Read the published estimate from the source", "kind": "other", "state": "complete", "blocked_on": null, "description": "The claim, method and evidence span published with the source article.", "duration_hours": null, "parameters": {}, "inputs": ["source:pmid:39991758"], "outputs": ["the published estimate and its evidence"], "instruments": [], "reagents": []}, {"id": "obtain_source_data", "order": 2, "name": "Obtain the source data from the named repository", "kind": "data-preparation", "state": "complete", "blocked_on": null, "description": "The GEO series accession resolves and its sample accessions are listed. 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Work-type validation does not validate methods.","Operation coverage describes only explicitly named methods. It does not prove a complete protocol, compatible parameters, successful compilation or re-execution. Unrecognised or ambiguous methods require review.","Data reachability is a textual accession or public-data statement. No dataset was downloaded or checked for access, completeness or licence.","Capabilities are planning states seeded from the dated equipment register. No bench ownership, completed quote or partner booking is inferred. Procurement counts are dependencies, not guaranteed replications or financial returns.","Tier and blocker counts are deterministic assessments of this corpus, not measured agreement. R3 is reserved for procurement; unresolved methods and data require human work (R4). The most restrictive axis wins, with capability, method, data as tie-breaks. Resolving one blocker can leave another at the same tier."],"engine":"corpus_engine","engine_provider":"rule_based_v1+lex99e1195c7d6f","run_id":"run-20261023T122449232913","source":"esearch","source_detail":"PubMed mirror biomed_pubmed (read-only)","run_status":"complete","imported_at":"2026-11-03T20:16:52+00:00","generated_at":"2026-11-04T00:45:59+00:00","total_papers":5529,"total_assays_tracked":29,"automatable_assay_families":6,"validated":true,"caveat_count":9,"blocking_caveats":5,"caveats":[{"code":"low_evidence_dominates","basis":["4,152 of 5,529 classifications (75.1%) matched no cue evidence and sit at the 0.05 floor.","34 of 230 data_only calls (14.8%) are in that group."],"claim":"Work type and confidence bands","gloss":"Most records were classified from their title and framing alone, with assay-cue coverage at zero.","detail":"Most classifications in this run rest on no matched evidence at all. At the evidence floor the work type comes from title framing and a fixed prior, not from anything in the paper, so the published work-type split should be read as a rough triage signal rather than a measured distribution. The impact is bounded but not removed: since 2026-10-23 the engine excludes floor-confidence records from the shortlist entirely and publishes them separately as held out, so the recommendation is unaffected even though the census is.","status":"unverified","severity":"high"},{"code":"runtime_is_modelled","basis":["Runtime is summed from published per-assay hour figures. Timing awaits the first executed replication.","4,407 of 5,529 records (79.7%) model to 0.00 hours because no assay was matched, which the ranking then reads as \"cheapest\".","0 of 10 shortlisted records carry a 0.00-hour estimate."],"claim":"Estimated replication runtime","gloss":"The hour figures are estimates built from assay mentions; timing awaits the first executed replication.","detail":"The hour figures are a cost model derived from the bench steps implied by each matched assay family. The first executed replication will supply measured timing. Records without an assay match currently receive a zero-hour model value.","status":"unverified","severity":"high"},{"code":"signal_score_without_citations","basis":["5,529 of 5,529 records (100.0%) have no citation count from the source metadata."],"claim":"Signal score","gloss":"The signal score uses publication-type weight because the mirror supplied zero citation counts.","detail":"The source supplied no citation counts for any record in this run, so the signal score is publication-type weight only. The citation term of the ranking is inert here, and the shortlist is ordered by publication type alone.","status":"unverified","severity":"high"},{"code":"abstract_absent","basis":["1,667 of 5,529 records (30.2%) carry no abstract at all."],"claim":"Evidence base for classification","gloss":"Some records contain a title and publication type only, defining the available classification evidence.","detail":"Where the mirror contains a title and publication types only, those fields define the classifier evidence. A methods section is required for fuller automated and human review.","status":"unverified","severity":"medium"},{"code":"classifier_agreement_measured","basis":["Published two-way decision agreement 77.7% (310 of 399 decidable records) from a stratified hand-check of 438 real records.","Three-way diagnostic agreement 73.9% (288 of 390 decidable records).","data_only agreement 75.2% (100 of 133 decidable).","48 record(s) could not be decided from title and abstract and were excluded from the denominator.","56 analysis-only records were published under another work type, so the data_only share is not an upper bound."],"claim":"Published automatable decision","gloss":"This figure has been checked against a human reading the same papers, so we know how often it is right.","detail":"The published automatable / not-automatable distribution comes from a rule-based classifier that was hand-checked against a fixed ground-truth definition. The agreement rates below are measured, not estimated. The three-way work type remains a diagnostic and is reported separately.","status":"measured","severity":"high"},{"code":"llm_comparison_not_measured","basis":["rule_based_v1+lex99e1195c7d6f produced 5,529 of 5,529 classifications.","Measured on 438 labelled records; these are RULE-BASED figures, not model results."],"claim":"Rule-based versus LLM agreement","gloss":"Every number here is the rule engine’s own. Model comparison begins when a working API credential is connected and measured.","detail":"The published two-way decision agreed with a human reading on 310 of 399 decidable records (77.7%). The diagnostic three-way label agreed on 288 of 390 decidable records (73.9%). Every percentage in this run belongs to the rule engine. Model comparison begins when a working API credential is connected and measured.","status":"not_measured","severity":"high"},{"code":"confidence_is_a_band","basis":["low band: 135 of 210 hand-judged records were correct, 64.3% [57.6, 70.5] (95% CI).","medium band: 80 of 104 hand-judged records were correct, 76.9% [68.0, 84.0] (95% CI).","high band: 73 of 76 hand-judged records were correct, 96.0% [89.0, 98.7] (95% CI).","A fitted calibrated probability was built, measured and withdrawn: it overstated held-out accuracy and reorders nothing."],"claim":"Confidence band and evidence score","gloss":"The confidence band carries a measured accuracy interval; 0.85 represents relative rank strength.","detail":"Confidence on this run is a BAND plus its measured accuracy interval. The number stored alongside each record is a monotone evidence score that orders records; 0.85 represents relative rank strength. A fitted probability was withdrawn after it overstated held-out accuracy. Threshold on the band.","status":"measured","severity":"medium"},{"code":"three_way_split_is_diagnostic","basis":["The corpus is published at the two-way decision: automatable or not-automatable. The three-way split (data_only / physical / mixed) is published as a diagnostic with its measured reliability attached, not as a claim, because the rule engine's `mixed` call cannot be defended.","The engine called 22 record(s) mixed; 10 matched the human judgement (45.5%, 95% CI 26.9-65.3).","The engine's `mixed` call is right on 10/22 hand-judged records (45.5%, 95% CI 26.9%-65.3%); a constant `physical` guess scores 36.4%.","The engine's `mixed` call does not reliably beat a constant `physical` guess on the hand-judged records it labels mixed.","The sign of that difference flips between two independent samples, so the three-way refinement is not demonstrably informative.","The mixed stratum contributes a disproportionate share of errors relative to its size.","At title-only depth the physical/mixed split collapses: a title says that work was done, not whether it was also analysed."],"claim":"The published decision is two-way","gloss":"The three-way split is shown for diagnosis only. The published split is two ways.","detail":"Count and filter the corpus on automatable versus not-automatable. The data_only / physical / mixed split remains an internal engine diagnostic because the mixed call has lower measured reliability.","status":"measured","severity":"medium"},{"code":"automatable_flag_unproven","basis":["6 of 29 assay families are marked automatable now: meta_analysis, machine_learning, survival_analysis, pca, molecular_docking, differential_expression.","The flag is a rule over assay family and work type; validation begins with the first executed replication.","It inherits the 75.2% data_only agreement rate, because the flag requires the record to be analysis-only."],"claim":"Automatable now","gloss":"This flag marks assay families the rules classify as data-only. The first executed replication will validate it.","detail":"This flag marks families the rules consider replicable from data alone. Its validity depends on the analysis-only classification and will be measured through an executed replication.","status":"unverified","severity":"medium"}],"confidence_policy":"band_with_measured_interval","confidence_contract":{"policy":"band_with_measured_interval","summary":"Confidence is reported as a BAND with a measured accuracy interval. The raw evidence score supplies monotone ordering. A fitted point estimate was withdrawn after it overstated held-out accuracy.","evidence_score":"A monotone evidence score in [0,1] built from cue mass, axis separation and text coverage. Use it to order records. Interpret 0.85 as relative rank strength.","confidence_band":"low | medium | high. Consumers threshold on this value.","band_accuracy":"Wilson 95% interval on the measured agreement of the hand-judged records in this band.","calibrated_confidence":"WITHDRAWN. Reintroduction requires held-out evidence demonstrating reliable estimates across every bin."},"band_accuracy":{"low":{"n":210,"low":0.576,"band":"low","high":0.7046,"agree":135,"accuracy":0.6429},"high":{"n":76,"low":0.8903,"band":"high","high":0.9865,"agree":73,"accuracy":0.9605},"medium":{"n":104,"low":0.6795,"band":"medium","high":0.8397,"agree":80,"accuracy":0.7692}},"provider":"rule_based_v1+lex99e1195c7d6f","lexicon_id":"99e1195c7d6f","contract_published_at":"2026-10-23T12:25:29.022232+00:00","confidence_is_band":true,"confidence_is_probability":false,"decision_taxonomy":"two_way","decidable_fraction_two_way":0.8854,"decidable_fraction_two_way_low":0.8565,"decidable_fraction_two_way_high":0.9143,"decidable_fraction_three_way":0.8586,"decidable_fraction_three_way_low":0.8287,"decidable_fraction_three_way_high":0.8884,"decidable_population":5529,"validation_sample_size":438,"three_way_cost_fraction":0.0268,"three_way_cost_records":148,"decision_counts":{"automatable":230,"not_automatable":5299},"decision_split":{"automatable":{"count":230,"share":0.04159884246699222},"not_automatable":{"count":5299,"share":0.9584011575330078}},"diagnostic_work_type_counts":{"mixed":24,"physical":5275,"data_only":230}}}