Construction and validation of a predictive model for the efficacy of valproic acid monotherapy in epilepsy based on Lasso-logistic regression.

{"sci_version": "1.2", "schema": "https://corpus.bntrg.co.uk/sci/1.0/sci.schema.json", "id": "pmid:40644837", "kind": "science-record", "revision": 2, "content_hash": "sha256:3ae5733fb56973a6ea60f9414a84bef5609cd4b75a383de21bc172986344765d", "created_at": "2026-11-01T20:30:44Z", "updated_at": "2026-11-01T21:35:26Z", "generator": {"name": "corpus-assay-engine", "run_id": "reading-sci-2026-11-01"}, "paper": {"state": "complete", "title": "Construction and validation of a predictive model for the efficacy of valproic acid monotherapy in epilepsy based on Lasso-logistic regression.", "doi": "10.1016/j.clinsp.2025.100684", "pmid": "40644837", "authors": ["Qichang Xing", "Zheng Liu", "Haibo Lei", "Renzhu Liu", "Xiang Liu", "Jia Chen"], "journal": "Clinics (Sao Paulo, Brazil)", "year": 2025, "abstract": "INTRODUCTION: Valproic acid (VPA) is a broad-spectrum antiepileptic drug; but its therapeutic efficacy varies significantly among individuals. The objective of this study is to identify the specific biomarkers that can predict the efficacy of VPA.\nMETHODS: The GSE143272 dataset from the Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) was utilized to identify Differentially Expressed Genes (DEGs) between responders and non-responders to VPA. Weighted Gene Co-expression Network Analysis (WGCNA) was employed to identify genes related to the non-responder phenotype. Intersection genes were selected to obtain the core genes affecting VPA tolerance. Lasso regression was applied to determine the core genes that influence the VPA effect. Lasso regression was applied to screen these core genes, using their expression values as independent variables and VPA response as the dependent variable in constructing a univariate logistic regression model. Peripheral blood samples from epileptic patients treated solely with VPA were collected according to nano-discharge standard. The expression levels of target genes were determined by qPCR to validate the accuracy of the model.\nRESULTS: 86 genes were closely related to the response phenotype through WGCNA. 13 intersection genes were obtained by intersection with 97 DEGs, which mainly involve mRNA splicing function and transport pathway. Ultimately, 3 genes-NELL2, SNORD3A and mir-1974 were included in the final model. The Area Under Curve (AUC) for this predictive model was found to be 0.70 (95 % CI: 0.70). qPCR analysis revealed a significant difference in the relative expression of the SNORD3A gene between the responder and non-responder groups.\nCONCLUSION: Epilepsy patients are at an increased risk of developing drug resistance when undergoing VPA monotherapy. The risk prediction model based on Lasso-Logistic regression demonstrates strong predictive capabilities. The SNORD3A gene may serve as a valuable biomarker for predicting the likelihood of VPA resistance.", "claims": [{"id": "claim-method", "statement": "Lasso regression was applied to screen these core genes, using their expression values as independent variables and VPA response as the dependent variable in constructing a univariate logistic regression model.", "kind": "methodological", "target": null, "evidence": [{"asset": "source:pmid:40644837", "locator": "sections[0] \"Abstract\" paragraph 7", "quote": "Lasso regression was applied to screen these core genes, using their expression values as independent variables and VPA response as the dependent variable in constructing a univariate logistic regression model."}], "state": "complete"}, {"id": "claim-data-access", "statement": "In this study, the dataset with serial number GSE143272 from the GEO database was selected, and the commercial ion channel chip platform GPL10558 was used. The dataset comprised peripheral blood samples from 16 epileptic patients who exhibited a favorable response to VPA monotherapy, 9 epileptic patients who did not respond to VPA monotherapy and 50 healthy controls.", "kind": "methodological", "target": null, "evidence": [{"asset": "source:pmid:40644837", "locator": "sections[3] \"Data sources\" paragraph 2", "quote": "In this study, the dataset with serial number GSE143272 from the GEO database was selected, and the commercial ion channel chip platform GPL10558 was used. The dataset comprised peripheral blood samples from 16 epileptic patients who exhibited a favorable response to VPA monotherapy, 9 epileptic patients who did not respond to VPA monotherapy and 50 healthy controls."}], "state": "complete"}, {"id": "claim-target-result", "statement": "The Area Under the Curve (AUC) and the 95 % Confidence Interval (95 % CI) of the prediction model were found to be 0.70.", "kind": "quantitative", "target": {"value": 95.0, "unit": "per cent", "tolerance": null, "source": "The Area Under the Curve (AUC) and the 95 % Confidence Interval (95 % CI) of the prediction model were found to be 0.70."}, "evidence": [{"asset": "source:pmid:40644837", "locator": "sections[20] \"Evaluation of risk prediction model\" paragraph 2", "quote": "The Area Under the Curve (AUC) and the 95 % Confidence Interval (95 % CI) of the prediction model were found to be 0.70."}], "state": "complete"}], "gaps": []}, "experiment": {"state": "complete", "objective": "The Area Under the Curve (AUC) and the 95 % Confidence Interval (95 % CI) of the prediction model were found to be 0.70.", "steps": [{"id": "read_published_estimate", "order": 1, "name": "Read the published estimate from the source", "kind": "other", "state": "complete", "blocked_on": null, "description": "The claim, method and evidence span published with the source article.", "duration_hours": null, "parameters": {}, "inputs": ["source:pmid:40644837"], "outputs": ["the published estimate and its evidence"], "instruments": [], "reagents": []}, {"id": "obtain_source_data", "order": 2, "name": "Obtain the source data from the named repository", "kind": "data-preparation", "state": "complete", "blocked_on": null, "description": "The GEO series accession resolves and its sample accessions are listed. 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RESUL", "model was found to be 0.70 (95 % CI: 0.70). qPCR analysis revealed a significant difference i", "G enrichment analysis of intersection genes. qPCR experimental verification According to the m", "SNORD3A and mir-1974 genes were assessed by qPCR and subjected to statistical analysis. The r"], "order_basis": "paper_text_order:1215", "id": "assay:1"}, {"role": "analysis", "definition_id": "regression_modelling", "definition_version": "f2132e96ae6c7a4e", "definition_digest": null, "required_operations": ["glm_logit_fit"], "support_state": "supported", "source_hashes": {"dsl_catalogue": "f2132e96ae6c7a4e"}, "confidence": 1.0, "evidence": ["Lasso regression was applied to screen these core genes, using their expression values as independent variables and VPA response as the dependent variable in constructing a univariate logistic regression model."], "order_basis": "consumes_earlier_output", "id": "assay:2"}]}